Tuesday, February 09, 2016

ANALYSIS: Crime Up Across Lakefront Neighborhoods; Loop Up 33%; Lakeview Up 18%; More...

Was it the warmer weather or an ominous sign of things to come?

Overall crime increased 11% in Chicago's North Side and lakefront neighborhoods last month compared to January 2015, with most areas seeing significant increases in robberies and motor vehicle thefts. That's according to CWB Chicago analysis of crime reports on the city's official data portal.

Yet, narcotics reports plunged across the area, possibly due to a significant drop in police investigative street stops since the Chicago Police Department began requiring officers to document every stop with a two-page form.

Citywide, there were just 864 narcotics reports filed in January, down 62% from the 2,258 filed in January 2015.

Neighborhood Increases

Of the community areas that we analyzed, the Loop saw the greatest increase in crime last month—up a whopping 33%. Burglaries there soared 225%, criminal damage and motor vehicle thefts surged 100%, and robberies jumped 76%, according to city data.

But narcotics cases reported in the Loop dropped 50%.

Lakeview saw the second-greatest crime increase, with an 18.5% jump. Robberies increased 233%, motor vehicle theft rose 140%, and burglaries spiked 80%.

But, again, narcotics cases were down sharply in Lakeview last month—off 67% compared to January 2015.

Other areas that saw double-digit crime increases last month include Lincoln Park, up 15%; River North, up 11%; and Uptown, increasing 10%.

Community AreaCrimes Reported January 2015Crimes Reported January 2016% ChangeLeading increase(s)Leading decrease(s)
Edgewater1531604.58%Motor vehicle theft up 150%; Battery up 135%; Robbery up 120%Narcotics down 70%
Lakeview37344218.50%Robbery up 233%; Motor vehicle theft up 140%; Burglary up 80%Narcotics down 67%
Lincoln Park25429214.96%Robbery up 89%; Motor vehicle theft up 75%Criminal sexual assault down 100%
Lincoln Square153129-15.69%Robbery up 66%; Motor vehicle theft up 42%Burglary down 70%; Narcotics down 63%
Logan Square3773821.33%Robbery up 100%Burglary down 83%
Loop52770633.97%Burglary up 225%; Criminal damage up 100%; Motor vehicle theft up 100%; Robbery up 76%Narcotics down 50%
North Center11297-13.39%Motor vehicle theft up 100%; 1 homicide vs. 0 last yearAssault down 66%; Theft down 48%; Robbery down 43%
River North67875511.36%Burglary up 100%; Criminal sexual assault up 150%; Criminal damage up 100%; Robbery up 50%Prostitution down 67%; Narcotics down 53%
Rogers Park287285-0.70%Burglary up 81%; 2 homicides vs. 0 last yearProstitution down 100%: Narcotics down 79%; Criminal damage down 30%
Uptown23826210.08%Burglary up 100%: Theft up 60%; Motor vehicle theft up 60%Assault down 53%; Narcotics down 50%
Source: City of Chicago Data Portal Crimes 2001 to present


Two neighborhoods bucked the increasing crime trend.

Lincoln Square saw a nearly 16% drop in reported crime and North Center's crime count was down 13%. Rogers Park remained statistically unchanged.

Citywide Trouble

Reports of serious crimes increased across the board citywide last month:
• Homicides up 86%
• Robberies up 31%
• Aggravated batteries up 26%
• Auto thefts up 19%
• Burglaries up 11%
• Arson up 141%
Among the most serious crime categories, only criminal sexual assault saw a decrease in January, dropping 32%.

The Weather?

So is this all attributable to warmer weather? Time will tell. But former police superintendent Garry McCarthy repeatedly claimed that weather had nothing to do with crime reductions on his watch:
[McCarthy] refuted suggestions that the reason violent crime is down is because of the cooler weather this year, by pointing out that six shootings occurred on one of the days of flooding a few weeks ago.
“Weather is an influencer on crime. It’s not a cause, nor does it prevent crime,” McCarthy said.
McCarthy credits strategic policing, strong partnerships with community leaders, aldermen, clergy and residents for the decrease in violent crime, but insists a change in laws is necessary to make a more significant difference.
One wonders how McCarthy, had he not been fired, would explain January.
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  1. Any information for Gold Coast/Sandburg?

  2. Dear friends -
    Pay no attention to those guys behind the curtain at CWB.
    On your behalf, we went and we asked Rahm himself about this crime stuff. (Well actually we didn't talk to Rahm. But we talked to somebody who works for Rahm. Supposedly. And well, we didn't actually talk to that guy, but we sent him an email. And when he didn't respond, we read a press release that was signed by Rahm himself. Or at least it had his name on it.)
    Anyhow, Rahm said crime is down.
    So there!
    Nah Nah Na Boo Boo.
    Oh and by the way, Bite Me CWB.
    Yours very truly,
    - Tommy T
    - Michelle D.N. Smith
    - Jimmy 'Mr Social Work' Cappleman

  3. There were, what, almost 600 shootings in this city in January, the coldest month of the year? And the violence gets worse when the weather gets nice? Hold on to your hats, folks, and welcome to Chicago.

  4. Listen here whoever you jackasses are over there at CWB.
    It's not too farking hard to print is it? So just knock it the hell off. Friggin truth-ers.
    Look dammit. After what that family-who-shall-go-nameless did here, this was supposed to be an easy turn-around for me. FF sake, what could be worse than that band of thieves? And now MY approval ratings are in the shitter! WTF! I mean Bernie Madoff's got a bigger fan club.
    We've got too many F'n nay-sayers around here. F'n jerks. My kid can't even do his homework out on the street at 10 o'clock at night without some BS innuendos from you clowns.
    Makes me long for the days when we could just send somebody from public works over to bulldoze your car, with you in the damn trunk.
    This was supposed to by my goddamn national launching pad, not some f'n quagmire, you sh!#heads.
    So just knock it the f+<€ off.
    Don't make me say it again.

    Ummmm.... Ron

    Oh and stop with the damn Three Stooges shit too. Yeah they're worthless. Buy they're MY worthless. So cut it out.

  5. "ALL IS WELL, ALL IS WELL!!!" -Animal House

  6. So crime is only down because police are not making narcotic and prostitution arrests, which are all pro-active policing arrests. That makes it even worse. Thank the ACLU!

  7. Take care of that lakefront Chicago. Without it you have basically nothing but the Mag Mile. Those that aren't aware of Uptown are shocked when they find out too.

  8. Chicago is NYC in the 1970's. There is no strategy and no leadership to deal with it, or any idea what to do with the gangs. Rahmbo knows nothing but to lie with Metadata. Difference here is the Sun Times and The Trib are sound asleep.
    McCarthy is no longer there to help him lie. Rahmbo has no friend in Springfield.

    Chicago seems to have lost its way about 8 year ago when they lost the Olympic bid. Everything has been going down the toilet ever since.

    1. We lost our way the day that Harold dropped dead.

  9. I pasted this article's URL on Tiny Tom's web page when he boasted about upcoming primaries.

  10. Tunneys is a plain out lie, through and through, every cell in his soul. What a shame he can't be bothered to do great things for Ward 44.

  11. < One wonders how McCarthy, had he not been fired, would explain January.>

    That's just it - he wouldn't have to. He'd rig the crime stats and definitions to make it not appear.

  12. Thank you SO much for your greatly appreciated extensive time and effort resulting in this critical detailed info! Have you consolidated the rise in armed crimes in the neighborhood into any analysis? Don't think I'm dreaming when I note a frightening, marked increase.

  13. It WILL be a hot time in the City this Summer!

  14. Alternate theory: without Gerry at the helm, police are actually reporting crimes accurately.

  15. So now all Rahmbo can boast about is that crime is down solely because we don't enforce drug laws. The Loop is up more than any place else because drugs was not as much a problem there, hence not enforcing doesn't bring crime down as much.

    Perhaps FBI's investigation has scared them not to cheat with Metadata, lest they wind up on CNN again.