Wednesday, April 02, 2014

A NUMBERS GAME: I'll See Your Quarterly Stats And Raise You A Trimester

A lesser man's back would be thrown out by the twisting, turning, and spinning that Chicago authorities go through in an effort to hide crime increases.

A number of local "news" outlets were quick to fire off re-writes of the Chicago Police Department's first-of-the-month "Crime Is Down" press release yesterday.

Since Chicago's March and February homicide rates exceeded last year's murder counts, the department suddenly decided to focus on quarterly homicide rates. 2014 saw the lowest Q1 homicide rate since 1958, the department said, with a 25% year-over-year decrease in reported crime.

But, we haven't seen much of anything about another statement that was released yesterday: A National Weather Service statement announcing that the just-concluded trimester was the coldest in Chicago history. We'll just post this now for future reference.

PS—The CPD press release also failed to mention that, in addition to exceeding 2013, last month's murder count was higher than March 2011 and March 2009. (Thankfully, we have the steady hand of to keep us on the righteous path.)

As we head out of the Coldest Trimester In Chicago History, we will almost certainly see stats being manhandled on the neighborhood level by politicians and police executives. Of course, we'll be here to call them out. Again.


REAL HUMDINGERS: The Biggest Fibs Of 2013
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  1. I do wonder how much variation in the city's homicide rates revolves around the skill of CFD's Paramedics and ER doctors...

    1. An excellent point. Emergency medicine is light years ahead of where it stood 20 years ago, not to mention 50+ years ago. Yet another reason that comparing today's homicide count with the 1950's is ridiculous on its face.

    2. My guess is that ER docs and Chicago FD's top notch paramedics probably can sway the city's homicide rate by at least 5%....

  2. Liars figure, figures don't lie..............