Friday, August 09, 2013

EXCUSE #1394: Things Aren't Bad...Per Capita

Oh, God help us.

You know things are bad when the police move away from talking about whether crime is up or down and they start talking about how we stack up per capita.

Wrong yardstick, officers. Violent robberies are way, way up and you know it. Now you're simply justifying the increase by telling us that we aren't being robbed nearly as much as the people in other parts of town are.

Perhaps we should try harder?

And this idea that the robbery surge is due to nightlife? That's ridiculous on its face. This may be surprising to some readers, but Wrigleyville and Boystown did not suddenly become popular nightlife districts in 2007. Boystown has been well-established for at least 20 years. Wrigleyville for much longer.

The "nightlife factor" has been a constant influence on robbery rates here for decades. It is a constant that's built in to every year's crime count.

As far as population goes, Lake View's population was essentially unchanged from 2000 to 2010. The neighborhood lost about 500 residents, according to the Census Bureau. So, we can't blame a surge in population for the surge in robberies.

So the nightlife isn't new. The dense population isn't new. The only things that are new are all these gosh darned robberies.
Source: City of Chicago
Overall crime on the beat is down by 69 incidents from the same period last year, representing a 9 percent dip. Robberies have dipped by four incidents, or 7 percent; burglaries are down 44, or 59 percent; and motor vehicle thefts are down 26, or 58 percent.
Thefts went up by seven, a 2 percent increase, and criminal sexual assaults doubled from five last year to 10 this year.

Rewind. Let's play that again.
Robberies have dipped by four incidents...
Thefts went up by seven...
Robberies down by four, thefts up by seven? Hmmm. Sounds like this CWB commentator may know exactly what he's talking about.

Well not too long ago Supt. McCartjy had all strong arm robberies or smash and grab as we call them, I.e. run up, push, and grab said property from victim. . . reclassified into theft from persons [instead of robberies]. All thefts from persons when force is used is really a strong arm robbery according to FBI/UCR crime classification. By decalssifyng a S/A to a theft from person you are effectively killing crime. 


  1. Are they comparing us to the hollowed out South and West sides ? Sounds like their old mantra: since we don't have their homicide situation, "the area is safe".

    BTW, I don't think the Red Line's reroute to the South Side is making any difference one way or the other. The Howard trains are merely retracing their historic, pre-1993 routing down the South Side "L" as the old "North-South Line", also when the Lake trains ran down the Dan Ryan. While the South Side "L" does not run as far south as the Dan Ryan, it is generally regarded as the more dangerous line.

    The #8 Halsted bus runs down to 79th St., farther south than the current Red Line trains. In any case, the cops think the thugs are mostly coming from the West Side, and if in Getaway cars, the "L" is irrelevant.

  2. paul@justoneperson.netAug 8, 2013, 7:23:00 PM

    Sounds like their old mantra: since we don't have their homicide situation, "the area is safe".
    We dont have the homicide situation. YET. Remember, conceal and carry next year will add a whole new dimension.

  3. Your point raised about McCarthy reclassifying crimes ( in this case robberies) is something no one else is taking him to task on. This "crime fighting method" extends to other crime classifications as well...the street cops are being pressured by brass to reclassify other "high profile crimes as well. He even does this with murders (eg. homicides in the city occurring on expressways do not count bc they are not patrolled by CPD). This playing with numbers is like a cover up and he should be run out of town. On top of this with the shortage in police and slow response times, as you have documented many crimes go unreported. Despite these deceptive tactics robberies and violent crimes are way up and that is even more alarming. I find it infuriating that he and the mayor continue to get away with this. How is this legal?!!

  4. If the politicians and police "leaders" put as much effort into fighting crime as they do trying to cover up we'd be making some progress.

  5. If McCarthy had any strength of character, he'd tell Rahm he is not his fiction writer, resign, then write his tell-all memoirs.


  6. Statistical bull****

    You know what will get the politicians attention?

    Handing out crime warnings to the tourist attending Wrigley Field like the Guardian Angles are doing on the mag mile.

    Know why?? MONEY.

    The mayor fears that tourism dollars will be hurt and until they are I don't think they care. We're all just martyr's and are suppose to take the beatings.

    Hey, you saw the mayor in the media telling the Guardian Angles in essence to go down to the south and west sides to play.. you're scaring the tourist!

    You know what else?

    A flood of request for conceal carry permits from the district.

    Face it.

    When push comes to shove the police can't be everywhere and the ultimate responsibility to protect oneself is YOU.

    We can delegate that responsibility to someone else but I ask you how's that working so far?

    We ask for help but are we getting it? Nope, we get these statistical games whereas they turn a blind eye to reality.

    If someone getting robbed doesn't throw more money away on a lost cause by taking time off work to file reports, attend court with continuance after continuance and then face possible gang retaliation when all is said and done then the crime doesn't count and the police superintendent can play dumb and the victim at the same time.

    Whelp if you don't file the paper work...ya know... the crime didn't happen, right?

    It's complete bull**** to totally ignore that crime that we all know is going on but doesn't make fiscal sense in these trying economic conditions to pursue. The city bureaucracy

    "We ain't got nobody that we can depend on" - Carlos Santana

    Nobody that we can depend on except ourselves. Think conceal carry.


  7. Next time McCarthy tell us that crime is down ask why aldermen Burke is still allowed to have personal body guards and drivers that he first received many, many years ago during the so-called council wars.

    Crime is down give them up baby. Your actions don't match your words Garry.

  8. < The mayor fears that tourism dollars will be hurt and until they are I don't think they care. We're all just martyr's and are suppose to take the beatings. >

    I am in New Jersey, post here every day. Is Rahm so effing stupid to forget there is WWW ?

    Regardless, Ed Shultz on MSNBC let the whole world know what Rahm really is 4 weeks ago on his show.

  9. We could all gather around Rahm's personal blue light camera (sans the light, of course) at the corner of Hermitage and Berteau and see how quick the response time would be to that.

  10. How about this interesting link?

    "What The CompStat Audit Reveals About The NYPD"

    Where exactly did our top cop learn to cook the books so it appears crime miraculously drops despite all anecdotal evidence and citizen observation to the contrary? Oh my! It's the same place an audit reveals the harrowing police work led to this incredible decline in crime.

    It boils down to dropping all writes one category... strong armed robbery becomes theft, etc. Also anything with a victim unlikely to show up for court, like a tourist, might not get written at all unless there's a gunshot wound.

    Read the truth and weep.

    Lies, damned lies and statistics is all we've got. You should start publishing the condo board letters being sent to aldermen in 18 and 19. They're crazy. I just read one on SSC.


  11. If the cities yardstick is going to be a per-capita measurement then I suggest that we measure the number of aldermen the city of Chicago has.

    Compared to other major metros like LA and NYC for example I think that you'll find that we are way top heavy.

    In fact Chicago hasn't reduced the number of aldermen since our population was around 3.62 million people in 1950.

    What are we at now -- 2.70 mil,

    Closing down some aldermen's offices would free up "much needed" revenues that could be use to put more cops on the beat.

    Seriously, do we need 50 alderman as our population keeps dropping. These wards should not be like gang turfs for the politicians to rule over into perpetuity.

    Look at the population drop almost 33% and we are still funding this clouted, corrupt mess. Same as it ever was, as big as it ever was.

  12. Would you like Tunney's district to be twice the size ?

    Do you really think money saved would go to North Side cops, if to the cops at all ?

    Be careful what you wish for.